"It's the heavyweight division ... We still have a 50-50 chance."
This weekend’s UFC event in São Paulo, Brazil features a card stacked with rising Brazilian contenders and superstars. A heavyweight showdown between Jailton Almeida & Derrick Lewis sits at the top of the bill, but many fans are disappointed.
Almeida was meant to be fighting Curtis “Razor” Blaydes, but Blaydes was forced out of the bout due to injury. To the surprise of the MMA world, the UFC chose fan-favorite Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis to take his place.
With a 2-4 record in his last 6 fights, Lewis has been finished inside the distance in all 4 losses. His last win, a 30-second flying knee knockout over Marcos Rogerio de Lima, has proven that he can still compete. But at the same time, it does not say much about his chances against the monstrous Jailton Almeida.
Almeida is undefeated in his 5 UFC fights, winning all of them via strikes or submissions on the ground. His grappling abilities have been nothing short of suffocating for the heavyweights he has faced so far. A matchup with Blaydes would have proven whether he could impose his dominant grappling against an opponent with a legitimate wrestling pedigree.
Lewis has never been one to showcase an impressive ability on the ground. The latest results of his career do not inspire much confidence for his chances against Almeida.
But as Lewis says himself, “It's the heavyweight division. It doesn't matter if the guys a black belt or if he's a world-class boxer. We still have a 50-50 chance.”
One thing that Lewis does possess is devastating power in his strikes. The Black Beast has racked up 14 knockouts during his tenure - the most in UFC history. A puncher’s chance is the only tool in his repertoire, but for a man with such raw power, it just might work.
Out with the Old, In with the New
In February of 2021, a three fight win streak put Derrick Lewis in position for a top contender’s bout against Blaydes. At fourth in the heavyweight rankings, a win against No. 2 Curtis Blaydes would have been worthy of a title shot.
Many believed that Blaydes’ heavy wrestling pace would be overwhelming for the Black Beast, especially in a 5 round main event. The betting odds closed with Lewis as a +340 underdog.
Blaydes may have outstruck Lewis in the first round, but Lewis shrugged off Blaydes’ only takedown attempt.
Less than 2 minutes into the second round, Blaydes’ second takedown attempt found him in a head-on collision with Lewis’ fist. The Black Beast threw a perfectly timed uppercut that synchronized with the takedown.
An unconscious Blaydes froze for a moment, until Lewis tossed his body to the floor and rained down hellacious ground and pound.
When reporters asked if the additional strikes were necessary, Lewis said, “That’s not my fault. That’s [Referee] Herb Dean’s fault.”
The jaw-dropping knockout was the biggest betting upset in a main event bout in 5 years. The UFC had a title contender on their hands.
With heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou incapable of defending his title in August of 2021, matchmakers set up an interim title match between Lewis and French phenom Ciryl Gane at UFC 265.
Gane outclassed the Black Beast and finished him with strikes in the third round. The fight put a disappointing end to Lewis’ four fight win streak.
Lewis rebounded with a punishing knockout over fellow knockout artist Chris Daukaus. Just a few months later, Jailton Almeida entered the UFC with a first round TKO.
Lewis found himself in a rough patch as Almeida stampeded through the heavyweight division. While Lewis was finished by his next 3 opponents, Almeida was finishing his next 5.
It appeared as if a fan-favorite was reaching the twilight of his career while a young athlete was making his way to an inevitable championship. With a first round submission over ninth ranked Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Almeida was not far from a title shot.
On the other hand, the results of Lewis’ last few bouts indicated that his career was coming to an end. He could no longer perform against the elite of the heavyweight division.
Lewis was scheduled to fight Marcos Rogerio de Lima in July of 2023 - a Top 15 heavyweight who could gauge Lewis’ ability to compete.
In the opening seconds of the fight, a 260 pound Lewis leaped into the air with a jumping knee, connecting directly with Lima’s chin. The shot sent Lima to the floor before Lewis bombarded him with heavy shots to end the fight. The Black Beast passed the test with a triumphant victory. There was still some gas left in the tank.
A Worthless Lesson
If Lewis carries out an upset win over Almeida, it would be a remarkable career resurgence. A popular fighter who seemed incapable of winning again making another run at the title - the storyline sells itself.
Jailton Almeida has been hit by opponents who possess far less power than Lewis. If the Black Beast’s timing & execution are well-prepared, a clean strike from Lewis would leave any opponent sleeping on the canvas floor, including Almeida.
However, in his 5 UFC fights, Almeida has only been struck twice. Each of these moments were followed by a thorough dismantling of those fortunate enough to even land a strike on him. It would not be surprising if Lewis met the same fate.
With the cancellation of the bout between Almeida and Blaydes, a matchup between tenth ranked Lewis and ninth ranked Almeida appeared to be sensible on paper. Unfortunately, the colossal skill gap between Lewis’ last opponent and Almeida makes it questionable.
Lewis is not entirely inept on the ground. He jokingly calls himself, “the best blue belt in Texas.” But fans are already aware of Almeida’s intense grappling pressure, and unlike Blaydes, a win over Lewis does not educate the fans on Almeida’s abilities.
Then again, the current debacle with the heavyweight championship may have opened a door for Almeida. Heavyweight champion Jon Jones has dropped out of his upcoming title fight against Stipe Miocic, and an interim belt is now on the line between Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall.
With the UFC looking to rebook the blockbuster fight between Jones and Miocic in 2024, it seems as if the interim champion may be defending their belt beforehand. And if this were to occur, the only rightful contender would be Jailton.
The UFC has made their use of Lewis as a title contender. Unsuccessful against former champion Daniel Cormier and Ciryl Gane for the interim belt, a third title shot is seldom earned by UFC fighters. Lewis’ role in this weekend’s main event is more of a booster for Almeida’s popularity than anything else.
But with his devoted fanbase and charismatic attitude, the UFC would be far from disappointed if the Black Beast gave the fans one last run for glory.